NFL Pace and Pass Rate: Insights into Offensive Tendencies

In the world of NFL, understanding the pace and pass rate of teams can provide valuable insights into their offensive tendencies. However, analyzing this data requires careful consideration of game situations and context. This article delves into the concept of pass rate over expectation and adjusted pace, providing a comprehensive overview of team performances through Week 13. Let's explore the numbers and uncover the top teams in pass rate over expectation.

Understanding Pace and Pass Rate in the NFL

Explore the significance of pace and pass rate in NFL teams' offensive strategies.

In the fast-paced world of NFL, teams' offensive strategies are shaped by their pace and pass rate. Pace refers to the speed at which a team plays, while pass rate indicates the frequency of passing plays compared to running plays. Understanding these metrics can provide valuable insights into a team's play-calling tendencies and overall offensive approach.

Teams that are trailing in a game often tend to play faster and pass more frequently, while those with big leads may slow down the pace and focus on running the ball to grind the clock. However, raw data alone may not accurately reflect a team's true tendencies. That's where pass rate over expectation and adjusted pace come into play.

Pass rate over expectation, as designated by nflfastR's live win models, takes into account game situations to determine the expected pass rate for a team. Adjusted pace, on the other hand, is a methodology that anticipates the expected pace based on various in-game factors. These metrics provide a more accurate picture of a team's offensive tendencies, accounting for the influence of game situations.

Top Teams in Pass Rate Over Expectation

Discover the NFL teams that have excelled in pass rate over expectation this season.

Let's dive into the numbers and explore the top teams in pass rate over expectation for this season:

Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts rank 8th in the league in terms of pass/run plays, with an average of 66.0 pass plays per game. Their adjusted pace of 26.8 indicates a fast-paced offensive approach. However, their pass rate over expectation is -3.3%, suggesting that they have been slightly below the expected pass rate based on game situations. The Colts also boast a high non-2MD no-huddle rate of 19.0%, indicating their willingness to keep the tempo up.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most pass-heavy teams this season, ranking 16th in pass/run plays with an average of 63.6 pass plays per game. Their adjusted pace of 27.4 indicates a relatively fast offensive tempo. With a pass rate over expectation of 2.5%, the Chargers have exceeded the expected pass rate based on game situations. They also have a solid non-2MD no-huddle rate of 13.7%, showcasing their willingness to keep the pressure on the defense.

New England Patriots

The New England Patriots, known for their efficient passing game, rank 19th in pass/run plays with an average of 63.1 pass plays per game. Their adjusted pace of 27.7 indicates a relatively fast offensive tempo. However, their pass rate over expectation is -4.6%, suggesting that they have been below the expected pass rate based on game situations. The Patriots also have a decent non-2MD no-huddle rate of 12.8%, indicating their ability to mix up the tempo.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks have showcased a balanced offensive approach, ranking 26th in pass/run plays with an average of 60.2 pass plays per game. Their adjusted pace of 27.8 indicates a relatively fast offensive tempo. With a pass rate over expectation of 1.3%, the Seahawks have slightly exceeded the expected pass rate based on game situations. They also have a non-2MD no-huddle rate of 12.7%, showcasing their ability to keep the defense on its toes.

New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints have been one of the most pass-heavy teams this season, ranking 2nd in pass/run plays with an average of 67.8 pass plays per game. Their adjusted pace of 27.8 indicates a relatively fast offensive tempo. However, their pass rate over expectation is -2.6%, suggesting that they have been slightly below the expected pass rate based on game situations. The Saints also have a respectable non-2MD no-huddle rate of 7.8%, indicating their ability to maintain control of the game.

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals rank 22nd in pass/run plays with an average of 61.2 pass plays per game. Their adjusted pace of 27.9 indicates a relatively fast offensive tempo. However, their pass rate over expectation is -5.4%, suggesting that they have been below the expected pass rate based on game situations. The Cardinals also have a non-2MD no-huddle rate of 8.3%, showcasing their ability to change the tempo when needed.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons rank 9th in pass/run plays with an average of 65.9 pass plays per game. Their adjusted pace of 27.9 indicates a relatively fast offensive tempo. However, their pass rate over expectation is -10.9%, suggesting that they have been significantly below the expected pass rate based on game situations. The Falcons also have a non-2MD no-huddle rate of 9.0%, indicating their willingness to mix up the tempo and keep the defense guessing.

Week 14 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Get a sneak peek into the average pace and pass rate for the upcoming Week 14 NFL games.

As we look ahead to Week 14, let's take a glimpse at the average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation) for the upcoming games:

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals is expected to have a fast pace, with an average pace of 28.0. The Colts have a pass rate of 54.5%, while the Bengals have a pass rate of 74.6%, indicating a potential high-scoring game with plenty of passing plays.

Houston Texans vs. New York Jets

The Houston Texans and the New York Jets are anticipated to have a relatively fast-paced game, with an average pace of 28.1. The Texans have a pass rate of 56.3%, while the Jets have a pass rate of 64.1%. This suggests that both teams will rely heavily on their passing game to move the ball and score points.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

The matchup between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints is expected to have a moderate pace, with an average pace of 28.2. The Panthers have a pass rate of 58.7%, while the Saints have a pass rate of 56.7%. This indicates a balanced offensive approach from both teams, with a mix of passing and running plays.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons are projected to have a relatively slower-paced game, with an average pace of 28.3. The Buccaneers have a pass rate of 60.3%, while the Falcons have a pass rate of 40.6%. This suggests that the Buccaneers may rely more on their passing game, while the Falcons may focus on running the ball and controlling the clock.

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The matchup between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers is expected to have a moderate pace, with an average pace of 28.3. The Patriots have a pass rate of 54.4%, while the Steelers have a pass rate of 52.3%. This indicates a balanced offensive approach from both teams, with a mix of passing and running plays.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers are anticipated to have a relatively fast-paced game, with an average pace of 28.4. The Broncos have a pass rate of 50.5%, while the Chargers have a pass rate of 63.8%. This suggests that both teams will rely heavily on their passing game to move the ball and score points.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns

The matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cleveland Browns is expected to have a moderate pace, with an average pace of 28.5. The Jaguars have a pass rate of 59.9%, while the Browns have a pass rate of 49.2%. This indicates a balanced offensive approach from both teams, with a mix of passing and running plays.